TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
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Game 2 Winner
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 14, 2026
Closed: Sep 14, 4:01 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether both EXILE esports and eSuba will slay Baron Nashor in Game 5 of their best-of-five League of Legends match during the Hitpoint Masters Playoffs. Currently, the aggregated probability across Kalshi, Polymarket, Predict, and Limitless indicates a 100.0% chance of this outcome. Resolution will be determined by data from https://gol.gg/esports/home. Keep an eye on the series as it progresses, with the final game – and thus the resolution of this market – scheduled to conclude by September 14, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The platforms differ in the granularity of markets offered, with Polymarket providing significantly more detailed game-specific and in-game event markets than Predict.Hero tip: Traders should carefully consider the level of detail offered by each platform and choose the markets that align with their predictive expertise and risk tolerance.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Offers a comprehensive suite of markets, including individual game winners, in-game events (Baron Nashor kills, dragon kills, inhibitor destructions, quadra/penta kills), and total games played. Resolution source is https://gol.gg/esports/home with a 2-hour reporting window.
- Predict: Focuses primarily on the overall match winner and replicates some of the game-specific markets (Game 1 Winner, etc.). Resolution source is also https://gol.gg/esports/home with the same 2-hour reporting window.
Polymarket
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between EXILE esports and eSuba in the Hitpoint Masters Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "EXILE esports" if EXILE esports win the match against eSuba. This market will resolve to "eSuba" if eSuba win the match against EXILE esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 14, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Kalshi
The event determines the winner of the CBLOL 2026 League of Legends match between FURIA Esports and LOS, scheduled for September 12, 2026, at 12:00 PM EDT. If the match is postponed and does not commence within 48 hours of its original start time, or if it is cancelled or forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match begins and is later forfeited, the outcome follows the official result declared by the governing body or tournament organizer. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Predict
This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket quarterfinal 1 match between EXILE esports and eSuba in the Hitpoint Masters Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 14, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "EXILE esports" if EXILE esports win the match against eSuba. This market will resolve to "eSuba" if eSuba win the match against EXILE esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before September 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of September 14, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Limitless
This market refers to the LoL match between LOS and FURIA Esports in the CBLOL Split 2 2026, initially scheduled for September 12, 2026 UTC. This market will resolve to "LOS" if LOS win the match against FURIA Esports. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports win the match against LOS. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, or the team is renamed or rebranded, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Frequently asked questions
Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Kalshi and Limitless can differ due to variations in trader demographics, market-making algorithms, and the specific rules governing each platform. For example, different fee structures or trading limits can influence price discovery. Additionally, the volume traded on each platform—Kalshi has seen volume of $338,192—can impact price sensitivity. These factors contribute to the observed differences in probabilities for the FURIA vs. LOS market, even though both venues are tracking the same underlying event. It’s common to see such divergence across prediction markets.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player form, team strategies, or potential roster changes for EXILE esports or eSuba would likely move the odds. Major upsets in other matches within the Hitpoint Masters Playoffs could also shift expectations. Furthermore, in-game performance during the series itself, such as early game dominance or strategic adaptations, could cause rapid price adjustments. Unexpected announcements related to the tournament format or venue could also influence trading activity and affect this market.