TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs
kalshi
polymarket

LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs

Volume:
$610,973

paiN Gaming Academy

 - Kalshi

paiN Gaming Academy - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 11, 2026

Closed: May 26, 7:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

paiN Gaming Academy

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$162,876
N/A
N/A
$66,248
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
20¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Slay a Dragon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Kills

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Slay a Dragon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Slay a Dragon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Kills

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game 4 Winner

View
50%
Yes 50¢No 51¢
1¢
N/A
$4,032
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Match Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$132,982
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Estral Esports

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$130,069
N/A
N/A
$67,377
Settled
No
polymarket

Game 3 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75,367
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,690
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game 1 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,416
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 3.5 Games

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,118
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game Handicap: EST (-2.5) vs paiN Gaming Academy (+2.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,937
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Game Handicap: EST (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming Academy (+1.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,555
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 4.5 Games

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,720
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Any Player Penta Kill

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Any Player Quadra Kill

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Any Player Penta Kill

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group covers a League of Legends Best-of-5 Lower Bracket Semifinal match between Estral Esports and paiN Gaming Academy in the Circuito Desafiante Playoffs, scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM EDT. Markets span series outcomes, individual game winners, game-level statistics (kills, objectives like Baron and Dragons, inhibitors), and rare events (Penta Kills, Quadra Kills).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's series-level outcome market (items 1-2) contains a logical tautology: both possible real-world outcomes (Estral wins OR paiN wins) resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable as a prediction instrument. Polymarket's equivalent market uses standard binary logic (Estral vs paiN). All game-level and objective-level markets are unified across platforms.Hero tip: Avoid Kalshi's series outcome market entirely—it will always resolve Yes if the match completes, rendering it useless for prediction. Trade Polymarket's match winner and game-specific markets instead. All other markets (game winners, objectives, kills, rare events) are logically consistent and resolvable across both platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Series outcome market (items 1-2) states: 'If Estral Esports wins... resolves to Yes. If paiN Gaming Academy wins... resolves to Yes.' This is a logical tautology—both outcomes map to Yes. The market cannot distinguish between the two teams and will always resolve Yes (assuming match completion). No resolution path for No exists.
  • Polymarket: Series outcome market (item 16) uses standard binary logic: 'Resolves to Estral Esports if Estral Esports win. Resolves to paiN Gaming Academy if paiN Gaming Academy win.' Includes proper edge cases (cancellation, tie, delay >7 days = 50-50; forfeit/disqualification before start = 50-50; forfeit/disqualification during match = winner resolves). Logically sound and resolvable.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between Estral Esports and paiN Gaming Academy in the Circuito Desafiante Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 26 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Estral Esports" if Estral Esports win the match against paiN Gaming Academy. This market will resolve to "paiN Gaming Academy" if paiN Gaming Academy win the match against Estral Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time consensus from traders with financial stakes in the outcome, often incorporating deeper game knowledge and live meta shifts than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically adjust lines more slowly and factor in margin requirements. For this Circuito Desafiante Playoffs matchup, prediction markets may react faster to roster updates, scrim leaks, or coaching changes. Comparing Polymarket odds to major esports sportsbooks can reveal where sharp traders see edge—prediction markets often lead sportsbooks in pricing efficiency for regional League of Legends events.

On Polymarket, the LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) match is priced via an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on order flow and liquidity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, with the current price reflecting the market's aggregate belief about which team will win the best-of-five series. Prices move continuously as new information emerges—team announcements, player performance metrics, or meta shifts in the Circuito Desafiante can shift implied probabilities. Liquidity depth on Polymarket determines how large orders impact the spread.

Key catalysts include roster changes or injury announcements affecting either Estral Esports or paiN Gaming Academy, scrim results leaked by insiders, meta shifts from League patches, and coach or analyst commentary on team preparation. Performance in earlier Circuito Desafiante rounds will influence trader confidence. Player form, recent tournament results, and head-to-head historical matchups also drive repricing. Media coverage highlighting underdog narratives or team momentum can trigger sharp moves. Any official statements about player availability or team readiness immediately before the match will likely cause final odds adjustments.