TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Ei Nerd Esports and RED Academy in the Circuito Desafiante Regular Season, initially scheduled for March 31 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Ei Nerd Esports" if Ei Nerd Esports win the match against RED Academy. This market will resolve to "RED Academy" if RED Academy win the match against Ei Nerd Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi resolve fundamentally different markets. Polymarket settles six distinct in-game event markets (Quadra Kill, Penta Kill, Odd/Even Kills, Dragon, Inhibitor, Baron) all tied to Game 1 completion and gol.gg as primary source. Kalshi settles only the match winner (RED Academy or Ei Nerd Esports) with no specification of data source or Game 1 scope, creating a critical structural mismatch: Polymarket's markets are unresolvable if Game 1 never occurs, while Kalshi's match-winner market may still resolve based on series outcome alone.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket, your resolution depends entirely on Game 1 being played and gol.gg publishing stats within 2 hours. If you trade on Kalshi, you are betting only on the match winner (BO1 result) with no explicit source or contingency rules. Do not assume Kalshi's match-winner market will resolve the same way as Polymarket's match-winner market if Game 1 is forfeited, delayed beyond 7 days, or canceled — Kalshi provides no such contingency language.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket settles six separate in-game event markets (Quadra Kill, Penta Kill, Odd/Even Kills, Both Teams Dragon, Both Teams Inhibitor, Both Teams Baron) plus one match-winner market, all explicitly tied to Game 1 completion and gol.gg as primary source with 2-hour publication deadline. All six in-game markets resolve to 50-50 if Game 1 is canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, forfeited, or not played due to series clinch. The match-winner market resolves to 50-50 if the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days without a winner. Forfeits and walkovers also resolve to 50-50 for the match-winner market. Quote: 'If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.'Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi settles only two binary outcomes: RED Academy wins or Ei Nerd Esports wins the match, with no explicit contingency rules for cancellation, delay, forfeit, or walkover. No primary resolution source is specified. No Game 1 scope is mentioned. The market structure is 'If RED Academy wins... then Yes' and 'If Ei Nerd Esports wins... then Yes,' implying only one can resolve Yes, but the rules do not address what happens if neither team wins (tie, cancel, forfeit, delay). Quote: 'If RED Academy wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026: RED Academy vs. Ei Nerd Esports League of Legends match originally scheduled for Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ei Nerd Esports wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026: RED Academy vs. Ei Nerd Esports League of Legends match originally scheduled for Mar 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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