TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Description
This market refers to the LoL match between Ei Nerd Esports and KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas in the Circuito Desafiante Regular Season, initially scheduled for March 30 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Ei Nerd Esports" if Ei Nerd Esports win the match against KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas. This market will resolve to "KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas" if KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas win the match against Ei Nerd Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi differ in market scope and resolution conditions. Polymarket offers granular Game 1-specific markets (Penta Kill, Quadra Kill, Inhibitors, Dragons, Baron, Odd/Even Kills) plus a match winner market, while Kalshi offers only a binary match outcome market with no Game 1-specific conditions. Additionally, Kalshi's resolution logic for match outcome diverges from Polymarket's on forfeit/walkover handling.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket's Game 1 markets, outcomes depend entirely on whether Game 1 is actually played and completed. If you trade on Kalshi's match outcome market, note that Kalshi resolves YES for either team winning, but Polymarket resolves 50-50 on forfeit/walkover while Kalshi's rules are ambiguous on this scenario. Verify the match is played in full before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket offers seven separate markets covering match winner plus six Game 1-specific in-game events (Penta Kill, Quadra Kill, Inhibitors, Dragons, Baron, Odd/Even Kills). All markets resolve 50-50 if the match is canceled, delayed beyond 7 days, forfeited, or if Game 1 is not played. Match winner resolves 50-50 on forfeit/walkover/tie. Game 1 markets resolve based on official gol.gg data or credible consensus within 2 hours of conclusion. Key quote: 'If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50' and 'If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.'Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi offers a single binary match outcome market that resolves YES if either KaBuM! or Ei Nerd wins the match scheduled for Mar 30, 2026. Kalshi's rules do not explicitly address cancellation, delay, forfeit, or walkover scenarios, creating ambiguity on how these edge cases resolve. The market description states 'If KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas wins... then the market resolves to Yes' and 'If Ei Nerd Esports wins... then the market resolves to Yes' but does not define resolution for non-completion or tie outcomes. Key quote: 'If KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas wins the Circuito Desafiante 2026... League of Legends match originally scheduled for Mar 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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