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406,065

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LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
predict
kalshi
opinion
polymarket

Who will win Bilibili Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming?

Volume:
$4,224,396

Match Winner

all

3 markets

Polymarket

Predict

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 8, 2026

Closed: Jul 23, 1:52 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Match Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,668,612
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Match Winner

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$48,747
$134,475
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
opinion

Bilibili Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Game 1 Winner

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$613,904
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Game 1 Winner

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
N/A
$72,570
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bilibili Gaming

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$246,659
N/A
N/A
$125,785
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 2.5 Games

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$23,078
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

O/U 2.5 Games

View
99%
Yes 99¢No 1¢
—
$33,367
$2,594
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$6,045
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,802
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,697
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

First Blood in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

First Blood in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,222
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$560
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Both Teams Slay a Dragon

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 39.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$44
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$24
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Game 2 Winner

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$2,163
$63,568
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Game 2 Winner

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$998,797
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)

View
1%
Yes 1¢No 99¢
—
$266
$11,883
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$169,532
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

ThunderTalk Gaming

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$203,439
N/A
N/A
$139,456
Settled
No
polymarket

Odd/Even Total Kills

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$373
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 42

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of any player achieving a quadra kill in Game 2 of the best-of-three League of Legends match between Bilibili Gaming and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend. Currently, the consensus probability of a quadra kill occurring in Game 2 is 50.0%. This prediction aggregates data from Predict, Kalshi, Opinion, and Polymarket, and will resolve based on official results from gol.gg/esports/home, with fallback to credible video evidence and consensus reporting if necessary. Keep an eye on the start of Game 2 on July 23, 2026, at 7:00 AM ET, as that will be the first opportunity for a quadra kill to occur.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms (Polymarket, Opinion, Predict, Kalshi) apply identical resolution logic: match winner determined by first team to win majority of games in BO3 format; individual game and objective markets resolve only if the game is completed; cancellations, forfeits before play, and delays beyond 7 days without play all resolve 50-50.Primary resolution logic: Official gol.gg/esports/home; fallback to credible video evidence and consensus reporting if gol.gg does not publish within 2 hours of event conclusion.

Core resolution logic:

  • Match winner: first team to win 2 games in the BO3 series resolves to that team; if series is canceled, forfeited before any game is played, or delayed beyond 7 days without play beginning, resolves 50-50.
  • Individual game winners (Game 1, Game 2, Game 3): resolve to the team that wins the completed game; if the game is not played due to series clinch, forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, resolves 50-50.
  • Series length (Over/Under 2.5 games): Over if 3 games are played (including forfeits/defaults that count as completed matches); Under if fewer than 3 games are played; if series is canceled or delayed beyond 7 days without play, resolves 50-50.
  • Handicap (BLG -1.5 vs TTG +1.5): resolves to BLG if they win 2+ more games than TTG; otherwise resolves to TTG; forfeits and defaults count toward the handicap if the match is completed; if series is canceled or delayed beyond 7 days without play, resolves 50-50.
  • In-game objectives (Baron, Dragon, Inhibitor, kills, multikills, First Blood, Odd/Even kills): resolve based on completed game state; if the game is not played (series clinch, forfeit, disqualification, walkover), resolves 50-50; if game begins but is not completed, resolves based on state prior to stoppage or 50-50 if condition was not met; if game is remade, resolution is based on the remade game only.
  • Kill totals (Over/Under thresholds): resolve to Over if total kills meet or exceed threshold; Under otherwise; if game is not played or begins but is not completed, resolves 50-50; if game is remade, resolution is based on remade game only.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Series Clinch Before Game Played: If a team clinches the series before a game is scheduled to be played (e.g., Game 3 is not needed after a 2-0), all markets for that unplayed game resolve 50-50, including in-game objective markets.
  • Game Begins But Not Completed: If a game begins but does not finish (e.g., due to technical issues or surrender), match winner and series-level markets resolve based on the series outcome if determinable; individual game and objective markets resolve based on state prior to stoppage or 50-50 if the condition was not met before stoppage.
  • Forfeit, Disqualification, or Walkover Before Play: If a team forfeits, is disqualified, or walks away before any game is played, the match winner market resolves 50-50; series-level markets also resolve 50-50.
  • Forfeit of Clinching Game: If the clinching game (e.g., Game 3 in a 1-1 series) is forfeited, the series is still considered completed and resolves to the team that wins; the forfeited game counts toward series length and handicap.
  • Game Remake: If a game is remade due to technical issues, all markets for that game resolve based on the remade game only; First Blood markets resolve based on First Blood prior to the original stoppage if it occurred, otherwise based on the remade game.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon official publication by gol.gg/esports/home or within 2 hours of event conclusion via credible video evidence. Series is expected to conclude on July 23, 2026; if delayed beyond 7 days from scheduled date without play beginning, all markets resolve 50-50.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the LoL match between Bilibili Gaming and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 23 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against Bilibili Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the outcome of the full LPL 2026 League of Legends match between ThunderTalk Gaming and Bilibili Gaming scheduled for July 23, 2026 at 7:00 AM EDT. If the match is postponed and not completed within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match is cancelled before play begins or forfeited before any play occurs, the market resolves to the fair market price. If the match begins and is subsequently forfeited, resolution follows the official result published by the governing body or tournament organizer.

Predict

This market refers to the LoL match between Bilibili Gaming and ThunderTalk Gaming in the LPL Group Ascend, initially scheduled for July 23 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming" if Bilibili Gaming win the match against ThunderTalk Gaming. This market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming" if ThunderTalk Gaming win the match against Bilibili Gaming. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://gol.gg/esports/home. However, if https://gol.gg/esports/home has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Opinion

In the upcoming LPL best-of-series match scheduled for 2026-07-23 12:25 UTC: if ThunderTalk Gaming wins the series, the market will resolve to "ThunderTalk Gaming"; if Bilibili Gaming wins the series, the market will resolve to "Bilibili Gaming". The series winner is the first team to win a majority of games. Individual games remade due to technical issues do not count as wins toward the series. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. In cases where a team's listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution Source: official LPL broadcast and https://lolesports.com. Note: Opinion will resolve this market strictly based on the first final result officially published or announced by a designated resolution source. Any subsequent revision, correction, or reversal will not affect the resolution.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction markets across Polymarket and Opinion, tracking trader consensus on outcomes related to the Bilibili Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming match. The combined group has generated $4,224,396 in total volume, reflecting active interest in how this best-of-three series unfolds. Traders on both platforms are pricing their views on match results, individual performances, and in-game events. By monitoring these markets together, you gain insight into how different prediction communities assess the same competitive event, with real-time odds reflecting the collective intelligence of thousands of participants.

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price outcomes using different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on professional analysis and risk management, then adjust them to balance their book. Prediction markets, by contrast, derive odds from continuous trading among thousands of participants who profit or lose based on accuracy. This market-driven pricing often reflects real-time sentiment and emerging information faster than sportsbooks update their lines. Neither is inherently more accurate, but they offer complementary perspectives. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus diverges and highlight potential value opportunities.

Polymarket and Opinion may price this market differently due to variations in their user bases, fee structures, and liquidity depth. Polymarket and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with different risk tolerances, information access, and trading strategies, leading to distinct price discovery. Liquidity imbalances can also cause temporary divergence—if one venue has fewer active traders on a particular outcome, its price may lag behind the other. These gaps typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit pricing inefficiencies, but they can persist during low-volume periods or when new information reaches one platform before the other.