TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Lithuania vs. Great Britain
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Lithuania vs. Great Britain?

Volume:
$66,111

Lithuania vs. Great Britain

 - Polymarket

Lithuania vs. Great Britain - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 11:30 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Lithuania vs. Great Britain

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,812
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Lithuania

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,028
N/A
N/A
$5,656
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Great Britain

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42,270
N/A
N/A
$35,352
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Description

This event group covers a FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game between Lithuania and Great Britain scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 11:30 AM EDT. Markets on Polymarket and Kalshi both attempt to resolve based on the final game outcome, but differ fundamentally in their resolution logic and scope.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction where both possible outcomes (Lithuania wins OR Great Britain wins) are stated to resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Polymarket provides coherent binary resolution logic.Hero tip: Trade only on Polymarket. Kalshi's market is broken by design and cannot be reliably settled. Confirm the game is not postponed or canceled before the scheduled July 2, 2026 date.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary outcome resolution: resolves to "Lithuania" if Lithuania wins, "Great Britain" if Great Britain wins. Includes edge case provisions for postponement (market remains open) and cancellation (50-50 split). Key quote: "The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods."
  • Kalshi: Logically contradictory resolution: states both "If Lithuania wins... resolves to Yes" AND "If Great Britain wins... resolves to Yes." This creates an impossible condition where every outcome resolves to Yes, rendering the market unresolvable. No cancellation or postponement provisions stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming FIBA WCQ Europe game, scheduled for July 2 at 11:30AM ET: If the Lithuania win, the market will resolve to "Lithuania". If the Great Britain win, the market will resolve to "Great Britain". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the winner of the Great Britain vs Lithuania professional FIBA World Cup Qualifiers basketball game scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 11:30 AM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two weeks. Should the game be cancelled and not played, or rescheduled beyond two weeks, the market resolves to a fair price for each team in accordance with established rules.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market reflects what thousands of independent traders believe will happen, often incorporating real-time information faster than traditional sportsbooks adjust their lines. Comparing this market's odds to major sportsbook spreads can reveal where consensus diverges and which venue may be mispricing the matchup.

Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, use distinct market mechanics, and may have varying liquidity pools for this matchup. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Platform-specific factors—such as fee structures, user demographics, and order-flow timing—can cause temporary price gaps even when both are pricing the identical event. Arbitrage traders often exploit these spreads, but differences may persist if one platform attracts more informed or contrarian participants. Monitoring both helps you understand which venue's price may be more reliable or where opportunity lies.

Key catalysts include team roster changes, injury announcements, recent form and head-to-head records, and any official statements from coaches or organizations. Pre-match media coverage, betting line movements at major sportsbooks, and social sentiment can also shift trader positioning. Weather conditions, venue factors, and late-breaking news closer to the event date typically drive the most volatile price swings. Monitoring sports news outlets and team social channels will help you anticipate moves before they're fully priced into this market.