TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes
kalshi
polymarket

Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes

Volume:
$1,208,152

Lille OSC

 - Polymarket

Lille OSC - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 2, 2026

Closed: Mar 1, 11:15 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Lille OSC

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,023,908
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

FC Nantes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100,904
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$80,834
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lille wins by over 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,170
N/A
N/A
$1,170
Settled
No
kalshi

Lille wins by over 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$528
N/A
N/A
$453
Settled
No
kalshi

Nantes wins by over 1.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$508
N/A
N/A
$508
Settled
No
kalshi

Nantes wins by over 2.5 goals

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event group covers the Lille OSC vs. FC Nantes Ligue 1 match scheduled for March 1, 2026. Kalshi offers four markets focused on goal-differential thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 goals for each team), while Polymarket offers three binary markets on match outcome (Lille win, draw, Nantes win). The core resolution window is identical across all markets: 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi uses goal-differential thresholds (>1.5 and >2.5 goals) as settlement criteria, while Polymarket uses binary match outcomes (win/loss/draw). Both reference the same match and time window, but the underlying settlement logic and market structure are fundamentally different product types.Hero tip: Understand that Kalshi and Polymarket are not offering competing bets on the same outcome. Kalshi markets reward you for predicting goal margins; Polymarket markets reward you for predicting the winner. A Lille 3-0 victory satisfies both Kalshi's >2.5-goal threshold and Polymarket's Lille-win market, but they are distinct settlement architectures. Cross-platform correlation exists only where goal margins align with match outcomes.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Four markets based on goal-differential thresholds. Resolves Yes if Lille wins by >2.5 goals, Lille wins by >1.5 goals, Nantes wins by >2.5 goals, or Nantes wins by >1.5 goals. Multiple markets can resolve Yes simultaneously. Key quote: 'If Lille wins by more than 2.5 goals... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three mutually exclusive binary outcome markets: Lille win, draw, or Nantes win. Exactly one resolves Yes. Key quote: 'If Lille OSC wins, this market will resolve to Yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to No.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.