TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient
kalshi
polymarket

Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient

Volume:
$796,111

Tie

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 9, 2026

Closed: Mar 8, 3:15 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tie

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$91,903
N/A
N/A
$57,994
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Draw (Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$40,785
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Lille OSC

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$376,839
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Lille

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$174,155
N/A
N/A
$94,536
Settled
No
kalshi

Lorient

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,290
N/A
N/A
$47,562
Settled
No
polymarket

FC Lorient

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,138
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers a Ligue 1 professional soccer match between Lille OSC and FC Lorient scheduled for March 8, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are predicting the outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where all three possible match outcomes (draw, Lille win, Lorient win) are mapped to Yes resolution, making the market unresolvable. Polymarket offers three separate, mutually exclusive binary markets with coherent logic.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi's market—it is logically incoherent and will resolve to Yes regardless of actual match outcome. Trade only on Polymarket's three separate markets (Draw, Lille Win, Lorient Win), which have sound resolution logic and official Ligue1.com as primary source.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market structure maps all three possible outcomes to Yes resolution. Conditions state: Tie→Yes, Lille win→Yes, Lorient win→Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where the market cannot differentiate between outcomes.
  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. Draw market resolves Yes if draw occurs, No otherwise. Lille Win market resolves Yes if Lille wins, No otherwise. Lorient Win market resolves Yes if Lorient wins, No otherwise. Primary source: official Ligue1.com statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.