TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lille OSC vs. FC Lorient
Volume:
$796,111
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a Ligue 1 professional soccer match between Lille OSC and FC Lorient scheduled for March 8, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket are predicting the outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction where all three possible match outcomes (draw, Lille win, Lorient win) are mapped to Yes resolution, making the market unresolvable. Polymarket offers three separate, mutually exclusive binary markets with coherent logic.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Kalshi's market—it is logically incoherent and will resolve to Yes regardless of actual match outcome. Trade only on Polymarket's three separate markets (Draw, Lille Win, Lorient Win), which have sound resolution logic and official Ligue1.com as primary source.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market structure maps all three possible outcomes to Yes resolution. Conditions state: Tie→Yes, Lille win→Yes, Lorient win→Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where the market cannot differentiate between outcomes.
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes. Draw market resolves Yes if draw occurs, No otherwise. Lille Win market resolves Yes if Lille wins, No otherwise. Lorient Win market resolves Yes if Lorient wins, No otherwise. Primary source: official Ligue1.com statistics within 2 hours of match conclusion.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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