TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 4, 7:00 AM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming Chinese Super League game between Liaoning Tieren FC and Chongqing Tonglianglong FC, scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Liaoning Tieren FC" if Liaoning Tieren FC score more goals than Chongqing Tonglianglong FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Liaoning Tieren FC and Chongqing Tonglianglong FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Chongqing Tonglianglong FC" if Chongqing Tonglianglong FC score more goals than Liaoning Tieren FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming Chinese Super League game between Liaoning Tieren FC and Chongqing Tonglianglong FC, scheduled for July 4, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Liaoning Tieren FC" if Liaoning Tieren FC score more goals than Chongqing Tonglianglong FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if Liaoning Tieren FC and Chongqing Tonglianglong FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Chongqing Tonglianglong FC" if Chongqing Tonglianglong FC score more goals than Liaoning Tieren FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one are driven purely by trader consensus—no house edge or bookmaker adjustment. This market's odds may move faster or more dramatically in response to breaking news, team updates, or sharp money flowing in. Comparing the two can reveal whether professional bettors and casual traders are aligned on the likely second-half outcome, or if one venue is pricing in information the other has not yet absorbed.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds through an automated market maker that adjusts prices based on the ratio of shares bought and sold for each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current market probability reflects the aggregate belief of all participants: a higher price means more traders expect that outcome to occur. As new information emerges—team news, injury reports, or live match developments—traders adjust their positions, pushing the price up or down. This continuous repricing mechanism ensures the market stays responsive and incorporates the latest signals available to the trading community.
This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, once the second half of the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome is determined by which team scores more goals in the second half alone, independent of the first-half score. Resolution happens after official match records are published and confirmed, ensuring accuracy and fairness for all traders. Early resolution is not typical unless the match is abandoned or postponed under extraordinary circumstances.
Key catalysts include team lineup announcements, injury updates to star players, and pre-match tactical discussions that hint at how each side plans to approach the second half. Live match developments—such as goals, red cards, or momentum shifts in the first half—will likely trigger sharp repricing as traders reassess the likelihood of each outcome. Weather conditions, crowd atmosphere, and any controversial referee decisions during the opening 45 minutes can also shift trader sentiment. News about player fatigue, substitution patterns, or coaching adjustments will influence expectations for second-half performance right up until kickoff.