TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 7:10 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. It reflects how fans and analysts anticipate the competitive balance between the teams and expects either a decisive win for one side or a close contest. The resolution depends entirely on the final score of the scheduled match.
The event consists of four sub-markets that resolve based on the margin of victory in a specific Korea KBO baseball game between the LG Twins and Samsung Lions scheduled for September 12, 2026. Each sub-market has a distinct threshold for the winning team’s run differential: Samsung Lions winning by over 2.5 runs, Samsung Lions winning by over 1.5 runs, LG Twins winning by over 1.5 runs, and LG Twins winning by over 2.5 runs. If the actual run differential in the game meets or exceeds the specified threshold for any given sub-market, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets are independent, meaning the outcome of one does not affect the others. The official game time is 4:00 AM EDT, and all outcomes are determined solely by the final score as recorded by official league sources. Kalshi explicitly states it has no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from initial sportsbook lines which may be influenced by factors like public perception or bookmaker biases. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their risk and ensure profit, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. Over time, prediction market prices can become more accurate as more information becomes available and more traders participate. It's common to see convergence between the two, but differences can persist depending on the event and the level of trading activity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the outcome of the LG Twins versus Samsung Lions spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective predictions of the traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic process helps to generate a market price that represents the probability of the event occurring.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final run differential between the LG Twins and the Samsung Lions will be used to determine whether the LG Twins win by over 1.5 runs, as defined by the market. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and results, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will then be paid out or have their funds forfeited based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 12, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes to the starting lineups for either the LG Twins or the Samsung Lions could significantly shift expectations. Weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the game, could also play a role. Furthermore, the performance of both teams in their preceding games and any significant shifts in public sentiment or expert analysis could all contribute to price movements in this market.