TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 16, 12:14 AM EST
Kalshi
A Mexico LMB baseball game between Leones de Yucatan and Guerreros de Oaxaca scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 9:00 PM EDT. The outcome will be determined by which team wins the matchup.
Resolution depends on the final outcome of the game as played on or after the originally scheduled date. If the game is postponed or delayed, markets remain open until the rescheduled game concludes, provided the delay does not exceed two days. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled beyond two days, resolution will be determined at a fair price in accordance with standard procedures.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets let traders set prices through supply and demand. This market aggregates the collective judgment of many independent traders, which can sometimes offer a different view than a traditional sportsbook line. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd's confidence differs from professional oddsmakers, though both sources provide valuable perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective belief in that outcome's probability, ranging from near zero to near one hundred. As new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, the bid-ask spread tightens or widens, and prices adjust in real time. You can enter limit or market orders to trade at your preferred price or accept the current market rate immediately.
This market resolves around Jul 16, 2026, once the matchup concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be confirmed based on the official final score and result of the game. Until that point, traders can continue to buy and sell shares as new developments, team news, or injury reports influence their confidence. After resolution, all positions settle according to the verified outcome, and traders receive their payouts.
Key roster changes, such as injuries to star players or unexpected lineup announcements, typically trigger sharp price movements in this market. Recent team performance, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage also influence trader positioning. Weather conditions, travel schedules, or rest days before the game can shift sentiment as well. Breaking news about team morale, coaching decisions, or playoff implications may cause rapid repricing. Traders monitor all available information leading up to game time, so any credible development affecting either team's chances will likely move the odds.