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404,028

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2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora
kalshi
polymarket

Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora

Volume:
$86,849

Basket Zielona Gora

 - Kalshi

Basket Zielona Gora - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 19, 4:20 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Basket Zielona Gora

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$39,722
N/A
N/A
$15,737
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,941
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Legia Warszawa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$42,142
N/A
N/A
$17,887
Settled
No
polymarket

O/U 157.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Legia Warszawa (-11.5)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers a professional Poland PLK basketball game between Legia Warszawa and Basket Zielona Gora. The match is scheduled for mid-June 2026 in the afternoon (EDT). Markets across platforms are betting on which team will win the game.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi contains a logical contradiction where both mutually exclusive outcomes resolve to Yes. Additionally, the scheduled dates differ between platforms (June 17 vs June 19, 2026), creating ambiguity about which game is being referenced.Hero tip: This is a critical data integrity failure on Kalshi. The resolution logic is mathematically impossible—both teams cannot win simultaneously and both resolve to Yes. Polymarket's logic is sound and resolvable. Recommend trading only on Polymarket until Kalshi corrects its criteria. Confirm the official PLK fixture date with the league before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Logical contradiction: States 'If Basket Zielona Gora wins...resolves to Yes' AND 'If Legia Warszawa wins...resolves to Yes'. Both mutually exclusive outcomes cannot both be Yes. Scheduled for June 19, 2026 at 2:15 PM EDT. Key quote: 'then the market resolves to Yes' (stated for both outcomes).
  • Polymarket: Winner-takes-all structure: Legia Warszawa victory resolves to 'Legia Warszawa', Basket Zielona Gora victory resolves to 'Basket Zielona Gora'. Scheduled for June 17, 2026 at 2:15 PM ET. Includes postponement (market stays open) and cancellation (50-50 split) contingencies. Key quote: 'If the Legia Warszawa win, the market will resolve to Legia Warszawa. If the Basket Zielona Gora win, the market will resolve to Basket Zielona Gora.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming PLK game, scheduled for June 17 at 2:15PM ET: If the Legia Warszawa win, the market will resolve to "Legia Warszawa". If the Basket Zielona Gora win, the market will resolve to "Basket Zielona Gora". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

This event resolves based on the outcome of the Legia Warszawa vs Basket Zielona Gora professional Poland PLK basketball game originally scheduled for June 19, 2026 at 2:15 PM EDT. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes, provided the reschedule occurs within two weeks. Should the game be cancelled and not played, or if it is rescheduled more than two weeks from the original date, the market resolves to a fair price for each team in accordance with the rules.

Frequently asked questions

PredictionHero aggregates trader positions on the Legia Warszawa vs. Zielona Gora basketball match across Polymarket and Kalshi, letting you monitor real-time consensus on the game's outcome. The dashboard displays current implied probabilities from both platforms side by side, showing how the crowd is pricing each team's chances. This cross-platform view reveals whether traders across different markets agree on the likely winner or if meaningful divergence exists. You can track volume and price movements as new information emerges, giving you a unified window into distributed prediction market sentiment on this matchup.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and lock in profit margins, often adjusting lines to manage liability rather than reflect true probability. Prediction markets, by contrast, rely on trader capital and reputational skin-in-the-game; prices emerge from continuous buying and selling by participants wagering real money on their beliefs. This market aggregates prediction market prices, which tend to reflect distributed information and can sometimes diverge from sportsbook lines, especially as new data surfaces closer to game time.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks, all of which influence how prices evolve. Polymarket and Kalshi may also settle outcomes using slightly different verification timelines or sources, creating temporary arbitrage windows. Order flow imbalances on one platform can cause its price to lag or lead the other; a sudden influx of traders on Polymarket might push odds higher before Kalshi catches up. Monitoring both simultaneously helps you spot these inefficiencies and understand whether consensus is truly forming or if isolated trading activity is driving a wedge between them.

Injury announcements, roster changes, or late lineup decisions can shift trader sentiment significantly, especially if a key player is ruled out. Recent team performance, head-to-head records, and home-court advantage all factor into how traders reassess probabilities. Media coverage, expert commentary, and betting syndicate activity on other platforms can also cascade into this market as information spreads. Closer to game time, warm-up reports, weather conditions (if relevant), and last-minute coaching adjustments may trigger sharp moves as traders incorporate fresh data into their positions.