TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 16, 7:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a soccer match between LDU Quito and Palmeiras, focusing specifically on the margin of victory during regulation time. It considers different thresholds for wins by either team, without accounting for extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates various winning margins for LDU Quito and Palmeiras in their CONMEBOL Libertadores match scheduled for September 16, 2026, strictly within the 90 minutes of regulation time plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty kicks. Four distinct criteria define potential resolutions: LDU Quito must win by more than 2.5 goals, LDU Quito must win by more than 1.5 goals, Palmeiras must win by more than 1.5 goals, or Palmeiras must win by more than 2.5 goals for the respective markets to resolve positively. Each rule specifies a unique threshold for victory margins, allowing for nuanced betting on the extent of either team's dominance. All outcomes are determined solely based on the final score after regulation time, with no consideration given to extended play or tie-breaking procedures. The rules also clarify that the platform hosting these markets—Kalshi—holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' perspective, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines to balance action on both sides and incorporate a profit margin, whereas this market is driven purely by traders’ beliefs about the likelihood of each outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event, or that new information hasn’t yet been fully incorporated into the sportsbook’s lines. It’s a useful comparison for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their predictions about the regulation time spread in the LDU Quito vs Palmeiras match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that as more traders buy contracts predicting a specific spread, the price of those contracts will increase, and vice versa. The market dynamically adjusts to incorporate new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final regulation time spread for the LDU Quito vs Palmeiras match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing sports authority. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive nothing. The final result will be clearly indicated on Kalshi once verified.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either LDU Quito or Palmeiras would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the availability of players or changes to the starting lineup are also likely to impact the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants could also cause noticeable price fluctuations as they express their views on the likely outcome of the LDU Quito vs Palmeiras match.