TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 29, 4:15 AM EST
Kalshi
This market centers on how each fighter wins the bout, focusing on specific methods such as knockout, technical knockout, disqualification, submission, or decision. It also includes outcomes where the fight ends in a draw or no contest.
The market resolves based on the method by which either Lawrence Lui or Hector de Sousa Santiago wins the fight. Wins by knockout (KO), technical knockout (TKO), or disqualification (DQ) are distinct from wins by submission or decision. A draw or no contest also has a specific market outcome. Each method is evaluated independently for both fighters, with separate markets for each possible victory method, including KO/TKO/DQ, submission, and decision for both competitors, as well as a combined market for draws or no contests. The fight must be originally scheduled for August 29, 2026.
Prediction market odds on this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to unique trader dynamics and the event-specific focus on victory methods. While sportsbooks may offer broader fight outcome bets, this market isolates method-of-victory probabilities, sometimes revealing sharper or more nuanced expectations based on community analysis. Traders on Kalshi price in real-time information and can react faster to new data than sportsbook adjustments.
This market resolves around Aug 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is based solely on the officially recorded method of victory — whether by knockout, submission, judges’ scores, or any other confirmed result from the bout.
Key fight-related news such as training updates, injury reports, or promotional events could shift this market as they affect perceived probabilities for each victory method. Analyst predictions, betting trends on Kalshi, and any dramatic changes in fighter performance leading up to the match can also cause rapid price swings. The market will respond to any verifiable information that alters the expected outcome style before Aug 29, 2026.