TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 28, 1:53 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between Latvia and Cyprus, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by regular time plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the goal differential by which either Latvia or Cyprus wins the match originally scheduled for September 28, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated: Latvia winning by more than 2.5 goals, Latvia winning by more than 1.5 goals, Cyprus winning by more than 1.5 goals, or Cyprus winning by more than 2.5 goals. If any of these conditions are met for the respective team, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. No outcome is considered if the match ends in a draw, if the winning margin does not exceed the specified threshold, or if the game is decided during extra time or penalties. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the Governing League, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within the prediction market. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available or as the event draws closer.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread in the Latvia vs Cyprus match. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability of a particular outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate beliefs may incur losses. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the market participants.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final spread of the Latvia vs Cyprus match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing sporting body, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the winner. Traders will be able to view the final outcome and the resulting payouts on Kalshi following the completion of the event and official verification of the results.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 28, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or strategic changes could also lead to significant price movements. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi can indicate informed activity and potentially trigger further price adjustments as others react to the new information or positioning.