TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 6:20 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track how often a specific player, Ashton Jeanty, carries the ball during a football game between Las Vegas and New Orleans. The outcome depends on whether he reaches certain thresholds of rushing attempts. The rules account for scenarios where the player might not participate in the game.
The markets resolve based on whether Ashton Jeanty records a specified number of rushing attempts (15+, 18+, or 21+) in the Las Vegas vs New Orleans Pro Football game originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. If Jeanty is active for the game but does not take a snap, the market settles to the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once Jeanty takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual rushing attempts he records during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all outcome thresholds, ensuring consistent evaluation for each market.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It’s also common to see prediction markets move faster to incorporate new information than sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts that pay out $1 if the actual number of rushing attempts falls within the contract’s specified range, and $0 otherwise. The price of a contract represents the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, with more buyers pushing the price up and more sellers pushing it down. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of its participants.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of rushing attempts in the game will be sourced from official NFL statistics and used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the officially recorded total rushing attempts for both teams combined, as reported by the NFL. Traders will then receive their payouts based on whether their contracts correspond to the actual outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. News regarding injuries to key running backs or changes in coaching strategy could significantly shift expectations. Weather forecasts, particularly those predicting inclement conditions, can also impact the likelihood of a run-heavy or pass-heavy game plan. Unexpected announcements about player availability, even late in the week, could cause rapid price adjustments. Finally, any shifts in public perception or analysis regarding the teams’ offensive tendencies could also move this market.