TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 5:27 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team or category scores the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game between Las Vegas and Los Angeles. It includes possibilities for either team's defense scoring or no touchdown being scored at all in the game.
The event determines whether the first touchdown in the designated professional football game is scored by the LA Chargers defense, the LV Raiders defense, or if no touchdown is scored by either team. Each market resolves based on whether the respective defense scores the first touchdown. If a defense is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair pre-game price. Once a snap occurs, resolution depends on touchdown scoring. If no touchdowns are scored in the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. These rules ensure clarity in resolving outcomes regardless of game dynamics, including scenarios where teams may not participate or penalties nullify plays.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading on their own beliefs, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, risk assessment, or simply varying opinions among bettors and traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each potential player to score the first touchdown. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that player scoring first, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a specific player, the price increases, reflecting growing confidence in their chances. Conversely, selling contracts drives the price down. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time.
This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, following the conclusion of the Las Vegas versus Los Angeles game. The outcome will be determined by which player officially scores the first touchdown, as verified against credible public reporting from official game sources. The official game statistics will serve as the definitive record for determining the winning contract in this market. Any disputes will be resolved based on the official game results as reported by these sources.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key offensive players on both teams are major catalysts, as the absence of a star receiver or running back would dramatically alter the probabilities. News regarding weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the market, favoring teams with strong running games. Finally, any late-breaking news about coaching strategies or changes in player roles could lead to shifts in trader sentiment and subsequent price movements within this market.