TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 5:22 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting which player or team unit will score the first touchdown for the Las Vegas team in an upcoming professional football game against Los Angeles. Each market corresponds to a specific participant, with outcomes determined by in-game performance.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player or unit scores the first touchdown for Las Vegas in the designated game. If the participant is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the pre-game fair market price. Once a snap is taken—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the outcome depends solely on whether that participant scores the first Las Vegas touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored by Las Vegas during the game, the 'No Las Vegas Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all individual player and unit markets resolve to No. All markets operate independently, and the governing league’s official scoring determines resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks include a 'vig' or commission, while Kalshi allows traders to directly assess the probability of the first Las Vegas touchdown. This can lead to differences in implied probabilities. If many people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price on this market will reflect that collective insight. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges and public opinion shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of the first Las Vegas touchdown occurring. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing a 0% to 100% chance of the event happening. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the true probability. The current price reflects the aggregated beliefs of all participants trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine whether a touchdown was scored by the Las Vegas team before any touchdown is scored by the Los Angeles team. The determination will be based on official game statistics and play-by-play data. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy and transparency.
Several factors could significantly impact the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Las Vegas or Los Angeles teams would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team's offensive style, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, updates on team strategies or coaching decisions, as well as any shifts in public perception regarding each team’s chances, could all contribute to price movements in this market.