TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 188M
- Kalshi
Above 188M - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 20, 2026
Closed: Jul 18, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks Lady Gaga's worldwide streaming performance during the week of July 10-16, 2026. Streaming data is collected from major platforms and published by Luminate Data, typically within 48 hours after the tracking week ends.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Lady Gaga's total worldwide streams during the July 10-16, 2026 tracking week, as reported by Luminate Data. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific streaming threshold, with resolution to Yes if the artist exceeds that threshold. Data publication typically occurs within approximately 48 hours following the end of the tracking period.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and crowd wisdom rather than institutional models alone. In this market, traders are directly wagering on weekly streaming outcomes, which can lead to faster price discovery when new music drops, chart performance shifts, or touring announcements occur. Comparing the odds here to published music industry forecasts reveals whether the crowd is more bullish or bearish than experts, offering a complementary perspective on what listeners may stream in the coming week.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares representing different streaming outcome ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices move in real time as new orders flow in, with the bid-ask spread reflecting uncertainty around the exact weekly stream count. Traders profit by correctly predicting whether actual streams will fall above or below the market's consensus level, and the platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery throughout the trading period.
This market resolves around Jul 20, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once verified streaming data becomes available from credible public sources. The resolution hinges on the actual weekly stream count for Lady Gaga during the specified period, measured against the prediction range established when the market opened. Traders holding positions aligned with the final verified figure receive their payouts, while those on the wrong side of the outcome realize losses.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market: new music releases or surprise drops, chart debuts or re-entries, viral moments on social media, tour announcements, or major playlist placements on Spotify and Apple Music. Awards show performances, collaborations with other artists, and media coverage all influence listener behavior week to week. Additionally, broader trends in pop music consumption, competing releases from other major artists, and seasonal listening patterns can sway trader expectations and drive price movement before the market settles.
