TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 209M
- Kalshi
Above 209M - Kalshi
1W
News
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 20, 2026
Closed: Jun 20, 2:21 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Lady Gaga's streaming performance is tracked across the week of June 12–18, 2026, measuring her total worldwide streams during that tracking period. Streaming data is compiled by Luminate Data, LLC and published approximately 48 hours after the tracking week ends.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Lady Gaga's total worldwide streams during the June 12–18, 2026 tracking week, as reported by Luminate Data, LLC. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific streaming threshold, with resolution to Yes if the artist exceeds that threshold. Data is published approximately 48 hours after the end of the tracking period. Luminate Data, LLC serves as a neutral provider of market metrics and does not endorse, verify, or participate in prediction market outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect real-money incentives and crowdsourced expectations rather than single-expert opinions. In this market, traders are directly betting on weekly stream counts, which can incorporate faster-moving data—chart performance, playlist placements, and fan engagement—than formal analyst reports typically capture. While analysts may issue periodic estimates, the market continuously reprices based on new information and participant conviction. Comparing the implied odds here to published forecasts can reveal where professional and crowd-based expectations align or diverge.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different stream-count outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective willingness of participants to back it, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. As new trades execute, the odds update in real time. Liquidity and trading volume influence how easily prices move, so periods of high activity can sharpen the market's signal about expected weekly streams.
This market resolves around Jun 22, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed against verified public data on weekly streaming performance. The resolution hinges on whether actual stream counts fall within or exceed the specified thresholds that define each outcome. Once the relevant reporting period closes and figures are available from credible sources, the market settles accordingly. Traders should monitor any official announcements or data releases leading up to that date to stay informed.
Several catalysts can shift odds in this market: new song releases or surprise drops, chart debuts or climbs on major platforms, viral moments or social media trends, playlist additions by major curators, and real-time streaming data releases. Award nominations, media coverage, and touring announcements can also boost listener engagement. Additionally, broader music industry trends—competing releases, streaming algorithm changes, or shifts in listener behavior—may influence weekly performance. Traders typically react quickly to these signals, repricing outcomes as fresh information becomes available.
