TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 11:57 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on the point differential in the final quarter of a football game between the LA Rams and the DEN Broncos. Outcomes depend solely on which team secures a decisive lead in the last quarter, measured by specific point margins.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point difference in the fourth quarter of the designated game, with overtime points excluded. Each market specifies a different threshold for victory margins, ranging from narrow leads of over 1.5 points to dominant wins exceeding 10.5 points. If the LA Rams achieve a fourth-quarter lead surpassing any of the stated margins—2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points—the corresponding "Yes" outcome triggers. Conversely, if the DEN Broncos establish a fourth-quarter advantage beyond thresholds of 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, the respective market resolves positively for them. No other factors, including earlier quarters or full-game results, influence these outcomes.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of informed traders, potentially differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Examining these differences can be insightful for anyone interested in understanding how various sources assess the probability of a particular outcome in the Rams-Broncos game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the 4th quarter spread. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people believe the Rams will cover a certain spread, the price of contracts reflecting that outcome will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and reflect the evolving expectations of participants regarding the game's final quarter.
This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 4th quarter spread of the Rams-Broncos game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, determining whether the Rams covered the spread as defined by the contract terms. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout based on the final price of the contracts they held when the market closed.
Several signals could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries to either the Rams or the Broncos would likely cause a shift in the spread. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale, or even significant shifts in public betting patterns at sportsbooks, could all influence the price of contracts in this market.