TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 3:38 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will score the most points in the third quarter of an upcoming football game between the LA Chargers and the Buffalo Bills. It evaluates performance strictly within that specific quarter, ignoring overall game results or other quarters' scores.
The market determines the winner of the third quarter in the specified football game between the LA Chargers and the Buffalo Bills. If Buffalo scores the most points in the third quarter, the 'Buffalo wins 3rd Quarter' market resolves to Yes. If Los Angeles scores the most points in that quarter, the 'Los Angeles C wins 3rd Quarter' market resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of points during the third quarter, neither team market resolves to Yes, and instead the 'Tie 3rd Quarter' market resolves to Yes. Points counted are exclusively those scored during the third quarter of play. The outcome depends solely on third-quarter performance, with no consideration given to the final game result or scores from other quarters.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows anyone to trade based on their own analysis. Generally, if a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it suggests that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the probability of a particular outcome. It’s common to see prediction markets more accurately forecast events, especially as they get closer to the event date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each team winning the third quarter. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the likelihood of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure drives the price down. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market price always reflects the most up-to-date information and sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on which team, the LA Chargers or the BUF Bills, has the higher score at the end of the third quarter of the game. The official game results, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be used to determine the winning team and settle the market. Traders will be able to see the final result reflected in their account balances shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Chargers or the Bills would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first and second quarters, and any strategic adjustments made by the coaches, could all shift the market's perception of each team's chances of winning the third quarter. Public sentiment and expert analysis can also play a role.