TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Toss Match Double
polymarket
kalshi

Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi - Toss Match Double

Volume:
$34,855

Brazil

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 17, 4:31 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Brazil

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14,461
N/A
N/A
$10,221
Settled
Yes
polymarket

BRA2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Malawi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,394
N/A
N/A
$18,213
Settled
No
polymarket

MWI2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers a women's T20 International cricket match between Brazil and Malawi in the Kwibuka T20 Tournament, with markets resolving based on both the pre-match coin toss result and the final match outcome. Markets are offered on Kalshi and Polymarket with different structural approaches to the same underlying sporting event.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents a binary match-outcome-only resolution, while Polymarket requires a conjunction of toss AND match outcomes with an explicit Draw state for mismatches or cancellations. The group name references 'Toss Match Double' but Kalshi's terms do not mention the toss.Hero tip: On Polymarket, a Brazil toss win paired with a Malawi match win resolves to Draw, not Brazil or Malawi Winner. On Kalshi, the same scenario would resolve to Yes (Malawi wins the match). Confirm with Kalshi whether the toss is actually part of their settlement; if not, the markets are fundamentally measuring different events. Polymarket's ternary structure is more granular and aligns with the 'Double' naming convention.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary resolution on match outcome only. Resolves to Yes if either Brazil or Malawi wins the match. No mention of toss component or Draw outcome. Key Quote: 'If Brazil wins the Brazil vs Malawi women's professional T20 International (W) cricket match...then the market resolves to Yes. If Malawi wins...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Ternary resolution requiring both toss AND match wins by the same team. Brazil Winner if Brazil wins toss AND match; Malawi Winner if Malawi wins toss AND match; Draw for all other cases (toss/match mismatch, cancellation, no winner declared, tie with no tiebreak). Key Quote: 'The outcome corresponding to Brazil will be considered correct if Brazil is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match...In all other cases...the market will resolve to Draw.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market refers to the combination of the pre-match coin toss and the final match result for the cricket match between Brazil and Malawi scheduled for 2026-06-11 in Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women. This market resolves according to (1) the official toss result and (2) the finalized match result as published by https://www.espncricinfo.com/. The outcome corresponding to Brazil will be considered correct if Brazil is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. The outcome corresponding to Malawi will be considered correct if Malawi is officially recorded as winning both the toss and the match. In all other cases - including where the toss and match winners differ, or where no match winner is recorded - the market will resolve to "Draw". DLS/DRS adjustments, over-rate penalties, forfeit/walkover, Super Over, or any other on-field ruling that leads the competition to declare a match winner are treated as ordinary wins. If the match ends tied and the playing conditions provide an on-field tiebreak (e.g., Super Over), the tiebreak winner will be considered the match winner for this market. If the match ends tied with no tiebreak used or available, no team will be considered to have won the match and the market will resolve to "Draw". If the match is permanently canceled, abandoned, or otherwise completed without an official match winner being declared, the market will resolve to "Draw". If the match is postponed or rescheduled, the market remains open until the listed fixture is completed and will then resolve as described above.

Kalshi

If the match ends with a decisive result, the winning team's market resolves to Yes. If the match ends in a tie, draw, no result, abandonment, or cancellation with no official winner declared, all markets resolve to $0.50. In case of forfeit, disqualification, or concession before the match begins, all markets resolve to $0.50. If such an event occurs after play has begun and the governing body declares an official winner, resolution follows that declared result. If play begins but insufficient play occurs to determine an official result, all markets resolve to $0.50.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and traditional sportsbooks price events differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract margin, while prediction markets rely on trader competition to discover true probability. This market's odds reflect aggregated trader beliefs rather than a bookmaker's risk management. Comparing this market's implied probability to major sportsbook lines can reveal mispricings, though prediction markets often lag sportsbooks in liquidity for niche sports events like women's T20 tournaments.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, fee structures, and regulatory frameworks that influence order flow and price discovery. Polymarket and Kalshi may see different volumes or trader conviction levels on Brazil versus Malawi, causing temporary spreads. Platform-specific liquidity constraints, user interface design, and promotional activity can also shift prices. Arbitrage traders typically exploit these gaps, but friction costs and withdrawal delays mean small divergences persist, especially in lower-volume sports markets.

Team news, weather forecasts, and venue conditions can shift trader sentiment on toss strategy and perceived advantage. If either team's captain is ruled out or injury reports emerge, market participants may reassess psychological factors influencing the toss call. Media commentary, historical toss patterns at the venue, and late-breaking tournament logistics can also trigger repricing. As match day nears, final odds typically converge toward 50–50 unless new information surfaces that traders believe favors one outcome over the other.