TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 29, 9:09 AM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on the margin of victory in a baseball game between two teams. Bettors predict whether one team will win by a specific number of runs or more. The outcome depends entirely on the final score difference between the two competing teams.
The event determines whether either the NC Dinos or KT Wiz win the specified game by a margin exceeding various run thresholds. Four separate outcome categories exist: NC Dinos winning by over 2.5 runs, NC Dinos winning by over 1.5 runs, KT Wiz winning by over 1.5 runs, and KT Wiz winning by over 2.5 runs. If the actual run differential meets or exceeds the threshold for any category, that specific market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets are independent, and the resolution is based solely on the official game result as recorded by the governing league. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the league or ownership of related trademarks.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a different outlook than traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks set their spreads based on sharp handicappers and public action, prediction markets aggregate crowd-sourced sentiment that can react more quickly to new data like player injuries or weather conditions. This creates opportunities where the two types of odds diverge, potentially offering value to traders who monitor both sources closely.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders directly set the price through their bids and offers, creating a dynamic market-driven odds curve. The current top outcome reflects what the crowd believes is most likely, with liquidity allowing for quick adjustments as new information appears. Volume of $6,727 and recent activity of $6,282 show how engaged participants are in setting these prices.
This market resolves around Jul 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread is calculated based on official game results, and the market settles automatically according to those figures. Traders should monitor confirmed sources as the game date approaches to ensure they understand how the final number will be derived.
Injuries to key players, weather delays, and pitching changes can all shift expectations and move this market. Any announcement affecting the starting lineup or game conditions will be closely watched by traders. Additionally, early game performance — particularly any large innings — often creates rapid adjustments in market odds as participants reassess their positions ahead of the final outcome.