TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 5, 10:59 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the performance of two baseball teams in an upcoming game, focusing on the margin of victory. It reflects how observers expect one team might dominate the other by a certain number of runs. The outcome depends entirely on the final score of the match.
The event consists of four separate markets, each evaluating different run-difference thresholds for either team's victory in the KT Wiz vs Kia Tigers game scheduled for August 5, 2026. The first market resolves to Yes if the Kia Tigers win by more than 2.5 runs. The second market resolves to Yes if the Kia Tigers win by more than 1.5 runs. The third market resolves to Yes if KT Wiz wins by more than 1.5 runs. The fourth market resolves to Yes if KT Wiz wins by more than 2.5 runs. All markets share the same underlying game and time, and each has its own specific resolution condition based on the run differential. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect a more nuanced outlook than traditional sportsbook lines, incorporating real-time trader sentiment and sharp analysis. While sportsbooks may set their lines based on broader public betting trends and historical data, prediction markets let participants bet directly on their own assessments of the game, potentially creating tighter or more divergent spreads depending on recent performance and news.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate expectations of all participants. The market’s probability output adjusts dynamically based on trading volume and order flow, capturing the collective wisdom of Kalshi users as they react to new information and shifting game dynamics.
This market resolves around Aug 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread result will be determined by official game statistics and box scores, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process for all participants.
Injuries, weather conditions, and recent team performance are key signals that could shift this market before Aug 5, 2026. A star player being ruled out or a sudden change in form may cause traders to adjust their bets. Additionally, any significant news from either team’s management or coaching staff, as well as broader league trends, might influence expectations and move the odds in the final days leading up to resolution.