TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 7:24 AM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the margin of victory in a baseball game between the Kiwoom Heroes and the NC Dinos. It allows participants to assess how decisively one team will outperform the other, reflecting strategic evaluations of team performance and potential game dynamics.
The event determines whether the Kiwoom Heroes or NC Dinos will win the specified game by a margin exceeding certain run thresholds. Four separate outcomes evaluate different victory margins: NC Dinos winning by over 2.5 runs, NC Dinos winning by over 1.5 runs, Kiwoom Heroes winning by over 1.5 runs, and Kiwoom Heroes winning by over 2.5 runs. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team achieves the corresponding run-differential condition in the game scheduled for September 27, 2026, at 4:00 AM EDT. All markets are independent assessments of potential outcomes and are not affiliated with the governing league; trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks typically set lines to balance action and ensure profit, while this market is driven by individuals predicting the actual result. If there’s a significant difference, it might indicate that prediction market participants have access to information or insights not fully incorporated into sportsbook lines. It’s common to see convergence as the event approaches, but discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the Kiwoom Heroes will win by over 1.5 runs. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective probability assigned to the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts indicating an expectation of a Kiwoom Heroes victory, the price will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and produce a real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final score of the Kiwoom Heroes versus NC Dinos game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final run differential between the two teams; specifically, whether the Heroes won by more than 1.5 runs. Traders holding contracts representing the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing outcome will forfeit their investment. The official game results will serve as the definitive source for determining the market’s resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries or changes to the starting pitchers for either the Kiwoom Heroes or the NC Dinos could significantly shift the odds. Weather forecasts, particularly if they predict conditions favorable to one team’s playing style, might also impact trading activity. Even public sentiment, as reflected in sports news and analysis, could contribute to price movements. Unexpected lineup announcements or in-game performance during earlier series could also be catalysts for change.