TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 7:04 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks the outcome of a professional baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. It allows participants to speculate on whether one team will win by a specific number of runs or more. The event is based on a scheduled game, with results determined by the final score after all regulation innings are completed.
The event consists of four distinct outcome categories, each defining a specific winning margin for either team in the scheduled baseball match. A 'Yes' outcome occurs if the actual game result matches any of the defined winning margins: KT Wiz winning by over 2.5 runs, KT Wiz winning by over 1.5 runs, Kiwoom Heroes winning by over 1.5 runs, or Kiwoom Heroes winning by over 2.5 runs. If none of these conditions are met — meaning the game ends in a KT Wiz win by exactly 1 to 2 runs, a Kiwoom Heroes win by exactly 1 to 2 runs, or the game ends in a tie — the market resolves to 'No'. The market resolution depends solely on the final score of the game as officially recorded by the governing league, assuming the game is played as scheduled. All outcomes are independent, and any one satisfying condition triggers a 'Yes' resolution for that specific market outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs about the probability of different outcomes. If a significant number of traders believe a particular result is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price will move accordingly. It’s important to note that prediction markets often incorporate information and analysis faster than sportsbooks, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official run differential between the Kiwoom Heroes and the KT Wiz as determined by the KBO league. The market will settle to 100 if the KT Wiz win by over 1.5 runs, and 0 otherwise. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout, while those on the losing side will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Sep 26, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, such as the starting pitcher or major hitters, could significantly shift expectations. Weather conditions, particularly if there’s a forecast for rain that might affect the game, could also play a role. Furthermore, performance in recent games, changes in team lineups, and even public sentiment expressed through sports analysts could all contribute to movements in this market.