TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 15, 9:20 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional baseball game between two teams, focusing on the margin of victory. It reflects how observers might evaluate the performance gap between competitors in a scheduled match. The result depends entirely on the final score of the game as it unfolds.
The event covers a single baseball match between the Kiwoom Heroes and KT Wiz, originally scheduled for August 15, 2026, at 6:00 AM EDT. Four distinct outcomes are possible, each defined by the winning team and the margin of victory. If KT Wiz win by more than 2.5 runs, or by more than 1.5 runs, that outcome resolves positively. Conversely, if Kiwoom Heroes win by more than 1.5 runs, or by more than 2.5 runs, that outcome resolves positively. The resolution hinges solely on the final score differential, without regard to any other factors or conditions. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all related trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds in this market often differ from traditional sportsbook lines due to the unique dynamics of crowd-sourced forecasting. While sportsbooks set their spreads based on analytics and betting action, prediction markets let participants bet directly on their expectations, which can lead to tighter or wider spreads depending on recent performance, injuries, and other factors influencing trader confidence.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the odds through continuous bidding and asking, with the current implied probability reflecting the collective view of participants. The market price adjusts based on trading volume and recent news about the teams, such as player injuries or coaching changes, allowing for rapid shifts in expectations as new information emerges throughout the season.
This market resolves around Aug 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread is calculated based on the official game result, and the market settles accordingly, closing all positions once the result is beyond dispute.
Key signals that could shift this market include major player injuries, changes in team performance trends, coaching strategies, and any disciplinary actions affecting either roster. Additionally, trades or lineup changes announced before game day often influence trader sentiment, causing rapid adjustments in the spread as participants reassess the likely point differential.