TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
Description
In the upcoming KHL game, scheduled for March 26 at 12:30PM ET: If Avangard Omsk win, the market will resolve to "Avangard Omsk". If Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk win, the market will resolve to "Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods and shootouts. In the event of a shootout, one goal will be added to the winning team's score for the purpose of resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi's resolution logic is fundamentally broken and unresolvable. Kalshi states that the market resolves to Yes if EITHER Avangard Omsk wins OR Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk wins—meaning the market resolves Yes for every possible outcome. Polymarket correctly structures the market as a binary choice between two mutually exclusive outcomes, with clear resolution to one team or the other.Hero Tip:
Do not trade on Kalshi's version of this market. The resolution criteria guarantee a Yes outcome regardless of the game result, making the market logically incoherent and unsuitable for prediction. Trade only on Polymarket, which has sound binary resolution logic.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Outlier (correct logic): Polymarket resolves to exactly one outcome—either 'Avangard Omsk' or 'Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk'—based on the final game score. 'If Avangard Omsk win, the market will resolve to Avangard Omsk. If Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk win, the market will resolve to Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk.'
- Kalshi: Outlier (broken logic): Kalshi's resolution criteria state that the market resolves Yes if either team wins, creating a logical contradiction where every possible outcome triggers a Yes resolution. 'If HK Avangard Omsk wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk wins... then the market resolves to Yes.'
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