TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,176,691
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,391,958,194
394,660
Markets across
30,119
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 5:36 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks how many touchdowns are caught by players from each team during a college football matchup. It focuses specifically on offensive plays where a player gains points by catching the ball in the end zone, excluding other scoring methods.
All markets resolve based on the total number of receiving touchdowns scored by either Kentucky or Texas A&M in their scheduled game on September 19, 2026, including any overtime periods. A receiving touchdown is defined as a player catching the ball and scoring without another player recovering a fumble for the score. Successful two-point conversions, regardless of when they occur, do not count toward any market outcome. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original time, all markets remain active and resolve based on the final official result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, markets resolve to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the NCAA, and all team names and logos remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individuals trading contracts. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that traders believe the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It's important to note that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms and can therefore diverge.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts predicting a certain number of touchdowns, the price increases, reflecting a higher perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price is determined by the forces of supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis of the game. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of touchdowns scored in the Kentucky vs Texas A&M game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective determination of whether the contracts will pay out. Traders will be able to see the final result and any payouts associated with their positions following the game's completion and official data release. This process ensures a transparent and reliable outcome for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Kentucky or Texas A&M would likely have a significant impact, as would changes in weather forecasts that could affect the game's scoring potential. Unexpected coaching decisions or shifts in team strategy could also move the market. Furthermore, as game day approaches, any analysis from sports analysts or updated statistical projections could influence trader behavior and shift the probabilities reflected in this market.