TOTAL VOLUME:
$147.3b
24H VOL:
$170,905,963
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,798,566,680
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,803,744,107
514,540
Markets across
38,061
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,839
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Closed: Oct 3, 8:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether South Carolina will win their college football game against Kentucky by more than 1.5 points. Currently, Kalshi gives South Carolina winning by over 1.5 points a 57.0% probability. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the Kentucky vs South Carolina game originally scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, as determined by the final score reported by official sources. Keep an eye on the game’s final result on October 4, 2026, to see if South Carolina achieves the necessary point differential for resolution.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential from the Kentucky vs South Carolina college football game scheduled for October 3, 2026. Each individual market resolves to 'Yes' if the winning team exceeds the specified point margin (e.g., South Carolina wins by over X points, or Kentucky wins by over Y points). If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price, determined under conditions that prevent unfair outcomes due to unplayed or incomplete matches. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the NCAA, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to participate in setting the price. It's common to see this market incorporate information more quickly than traditional sportsbooks, especially in response to late-breaking news or shifts in public opinion regarding the game. This can lead to differences in the implied probabilities.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded. The current top market on Kalshi is for South Carolina wins by over 14.5 points, though market conditions are always evolving based on trader activity.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the Kentucky vs South Carolina game, as determined by official game statistics, will be used to determine which contracts pay out. All contracts will settle to either $100 or $0, depending on whether the actual spread falls within the range specified by the contract purchased. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the resolution.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either Kentucky or South Carolina would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is expected during the game, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced by either team could also lead to price fluctuations. Finally, public perception and any major betting trends observed in sportsbooks may also influence how traders position themselves in this market.