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Closed: Sep 19, 3:42 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the margin of victory in the fourth quarter of a college football game between Kent State and Ohio State. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by either team to resolve as 'Yes'.
The markets resolve based on the point differential achieved by either team exclusively during the fourth quarter of play, excluding any overtime periods. If Ohio State wins the fourth quarter by more than the specified threshold—ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points—the corresponding 'Ohio St. wins 4Q by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Kent State wins the fourth quarter by more than the specified threshold—also ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points—the respective 'Kent St. wins 4Q by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the final official result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of timing changes.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or when new information emerges. These differences can present opportunities for informed traders to find value, as the market adjusts to incorporate new data and perspectives. Analyzing these differences can be a useful strategy when evaluating potential trades.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual fourth-quarter spread will fall within that range. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of contracts available at different prices, indicates the level of interest and potential liquidity for each spread. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price movements.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the fourth quarter of the Kent St. vs Ohio St. game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The platform will verify the result against official game statistics and publicly available information to ensure accuracy. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the quarterback or key defensive players, could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if severe weather is predicted, could also impact the spread. Furthermore, in-game performance during the first three quarters, and any adjustments to team strategies, could lead to traders reassessing their positions and adjusting the market price. Public sentiment and betting trends from sportsbooks may also play a role, though this market reflects independent trader views.