TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 4:10 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will achieve a specific point differential advantage over the opposing team in the second half of a football game, including any overtime periods. The outcomes depend solely on the points scored after halftime, ignoring the first half's results.
All markets resolve based exclusively on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified KC Chiefs vs MIA Dolphins Pro Football game scheduled for Sep 27, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold: if the KC Chiefs win the second half by more than a specified number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 20.5), that respective market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the MIA Dolphins win the second half by more than a specified number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), that corresponding market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the second half and any overtime periods count toward these thresholds; first-half points are irrelevant. The markets are independent, meaning multiple can resolve to Yes or No based on the actual point differential. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market allows anyone to trade on their belief about the outcome. It's common to see discrepancies, especially before significant events or breaking news. These differences can present opportunities for traders who believe the market is mispricing the probability of a particular result. Analyzing these differences can be a valuable part of a trading strategy for this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe the Chiefs will cover, the price of contracts representing a larger spread will increase, and vice versa.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread of the second half of the Kansas City Chiefs versus Miami Dolphins game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data provider. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of $1 per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive $0.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, such as the Chiefs’ quarterback or the Dolphins’ wide receivers, would likely cause price movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s style of play, could also influence trading activity. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could shift the market’s sentiment. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could also cause noticeable price fluctuations in this market.