TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 1:55 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the outcome of the first quarter in an upcoming football game between two teams. Each market evaluates different point spreads to determine which team will have a decisive lead early in the game.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins during the first quarter of their game scheduled for September 27, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold for the point spread required for resolution. If the Chiefs win the first quarter by exceeding the specified margin—for example, more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points—the corresponding 'Yes' outcome is triggered. Conversely, if the Dolphins secure a first-quarter victory with a margin exceeding 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points, the respective market resolves to 'Yes' for Miami. Only points scored during the first quarter count, and all markets are independent, meaning each evaluates its own threshold without influence from others. The markets are not endorsed by the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with, but sometimes diverging from, traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by the collective predictions of individual traders. If there’s a significant difference, it could indicate that market participants have information or perspectives that aren’t fully incorporated into the sportsbook’s assessment. It’s worth noting that prediction markets often demonstrate greater accuracy in forecasting event outcomes than traditional polls or expert analyses.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the first quarter of the Chiefs-Dolphins game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will reflect the actual difference in scores between the two teams at the end of the first quarter, compared to the spread offered in the contracts. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side will forfeit their stake. The final result will be based on official game statistics.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Chiefs or the Dolphins would be a major catalyst, potentially shifting the perceived advantage. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team’s style of play, could also influence trading activity. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale might prompt traders to reassess their predictions. Even public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to price movements in this market.