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KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos?

Volume:
$23,529

Over 9.5 runs scored

 - Kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 8:40 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 9.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,826
N/A
N/A
$8,353
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 11.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,317
N/A
N/A
$1,145
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 7.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$807
N/A
N/A
$788
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 5.5 runs scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$519
N/A
N/A
$509
Settled
Yes
polymarket

KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,060
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This event group covers a KBO (Korean Baseball Organization) matchup between Samsung Lions and NC Dinos scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 5:30 AM EDT. Kalshi offers four over/under markets on combined run totals (5.5, 7.5, 9.5, and 11.5 runs), while Polymarket offers a head-to-head winner market (Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos) with tie/cancellation provisions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket measure distinct outcomes: Kalshi resolves on combined run totals (over/under markets), while Polymarket resolves on game winner (head-to-head). These are separate market types, not conflicting versions of the same market.Hero tip: Treat these as two independent markets. Kalshi outcomes depend solely on total runs scored by both teams combined. Polymarket outcomes depend on which team wins. A high-scoring Samsung Lions victory could resolve Yes on Kalshi's over/under markets while also resolving to Samsung Lions on Polymarket—these are complementary, not contradictory.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Four separate binary over/under markets on combined team run totals. Each market resolves Yes if combined runs exceed the specified threshold (5.5, 7.5, 9.5, or 11.5), No otherwise. Resolution depends entirely on final combined score. Key quote: 'If Samsung Lions and NC Dinos collectively score more than [X] runs... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Head-to-head winner market. Resolves to Samsung Lions if they win, NC Dinos if they win, or 50-50 if the game is postponed indefinitely, canceled with no makeup, or ends in a tie. Resolution depends on which team wins the game. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Samsung Lions if the Samsung Lions win the game... If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market on the KBO baseball game between Samsung Lions and NC Dinos, scheduled for July 1 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Samsung Lions" if the Samsung Lions win the game. This market will resolve to "NC Dinos" if the NC Dinos win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the KBO. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on the total runs scored by both Samsung Lions and NC Dinos combined in their scheduled July 1, 2026 game at 5:30 AM EDT. The event contains four separate markets, each with a different run threshold: 5.5, 7.5, 9.5, and 11.5 runs. Each market resolves to Yes if the combined total exceeds its respective threshold, and to No otherwise. Official scoring follows standard baseball rules as recorded at game conclusion.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate on distinct mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets derive prices from real-time trader consensus—essentially a crowdsourced probability. This market's odds reflect what thousands of independent traders believe will happen, often incorporating faster-moving information than traditional sportsbooks. Comparing the two can reveal value: if this market's implied probability diverges meaningfully from a sportsbook line, it may signal an edge worth exploring.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different prices on the same event for several reasons. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct trader pools with different risk appetites and information sets. Liquidity depth varies between venues, so larger trades may move prices differently. Settlement rules, fee structures, and UI design also influence how traders behave. These gaps typically narrow as resolution approaches, but they create arbitrage opportunities for alert traders monitoring both platforms in real time.