TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of the artist KATSEYE by monitoring their daily view counts on YouTube over a specific week. The outcome depends on whether KATSEYE achieves certain view count thresholds during the specified period, reflecting their popularity and reach on the platform.
Kalshi
The event evaluates whether the artist KATSEYE attains specified global daily view count thresholds on YouTube during the period from October 19, 2026, to October 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, ranging from above 11 million to above 25 million views. For any market to resolve as 'Yes,' KATSEYE must surpass the respective threshold at any point during the specified week. View counts are determined using data accessed via YouTube Charts, with 'Global' selected as the location and values displayed from a New York IP address used for consistency. It is noted that YouTube has not endorsed these markets, and references to YouTube charts are purely descriptive, indicating no formal affiliation or endorsement by YouTube.
Frequently asked questions
It's common to see differences between prediction market probabilities and those offered by traditional analysts or polls. Analysts often rely on historical data and subjective assessments, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game. If analysts predict a certain outcome for KATSEYE’s daily views, but traders in this market assign a lower probability to that same outcome, it could indicate that traders believe the analysts are overestimating the likelihood or that new information hasn't yet been fully incorporated into analyst models. This dynamic makes this market a useful tool for assessing real-world expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. Essentially, the price of a 'yes' outcome reflects the probability that KATSEYE will achieve the highest daily view count within the specified timeframe. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price for that outcome will climb. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism where the market odds constantly reflect the latest information and collective judgment of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the highest daily view count achieved by KATSEYE between October 19, 2026, and October 25, 2026. The specific data source used to determine the daily view count will be publicly available at the time of resolution, ensuring transparency and accountability. Traders will be able to see how the actual outcome aligns with the predictions made in this market.
Several factors could influence the odds in this market. Major announcements regarding KATSEYE content releases, shifts in viewership trends for similar entertainment, and significant media coverage could all impact trader sentiment. Unexpected events that draw attention away from KATSEYE, or conversely, generate increased buzz, could also cause the market to move. Furthermore, any news related to the platform hosting KATSEYE, or changes in its algorithm, could affect the expected view counts and therefore the pricing within this market.
