TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Machida Zelvia
Volume:
$109,879
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers a professional Japan J1 League soccer match between Kashiwa Reysol and FC Machida Zelvia scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the match outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi market structure contains a logical contradiction where all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Machida Z win, Tie, Kashiwa win) are defined to resolve to Yes, making simultaneous resolution impossible. Polymarket uses standard mutually exclusive binary logic with differentiated cancellation handling.Hero Tip:
Do not trade the Kalshi market due to unresolvable logical structure. Polymarket markets are coherent but require attention to cancellation rules: the Draw market resolves Yes on cancellation while Win markets resolve No. Confirm match completion via official J-League sources before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Market defines three outcomes where all resolve to Yes: 'If Machida Z wins...resolves to Yes', 'If Tie wins...resolves to Yes', 'If Kashiwa wins...resolves to Yes'. This is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. The market structure is internally contradictory and unresolvable.
- Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: Kashiwa win (Yes/No), Machida Z win (Yes/No), Draw (Yes/No). Cancellation handling differs: Draw market resolves Yes if canceled; Kashiwa and Machida win markets resolve No if canceled. Primary source is official J-League statistics within 2 hours, with credible reporting as fallback.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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