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406,422

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2,688

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5

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Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Machida Zelvia
kalshi
polymarket

Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Machida Zelvia

Volume:
$109,879

Machida Z

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 14, 2026

Closed: Mar 14, 4:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Machida Z

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$62,867
N/A
N/A
$35,306
Settled
Yes
polymarket

FC Machida Zelvia

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,447
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kashiwa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$32,695
N/A
N/A
$20,210
Settled
No
polymarket

Kashiwa Reysol

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,780
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,992
N/A
N/A
$7,042
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Machida Zelvia)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$98
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers a professional Japan J1 League soccer match between Kashiwa Reysol and FC Machida Zelvia scheduled for March 14, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket assess the match outcome (win/loss/draw) based on the result after 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market structure contains a logical contradiction where all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Machida Z win, Tie, Kashiwa win) are defined to resolve to Yes, making simultaneous resolution impossible. Polymarket uses standard mutually exclusive binary logic with differentiated cancellation handling.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market due to unresolvable logical structure. Polymarket markets are coherent but require attention to cancellation rules: the Draw market resolves Yes on cancellation while Win markets resolve No. Confirm match completion via official J-League sources before settlement.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market defines three outcomes where all resolve to Yes: 'If Machida Z wins...resolves to Yes', 'If Tie wins...resolves to Yes', 'If Kashiwa wins...resolves to Yes'. This is logically impossible since only one outcome can occur. The market structure is internally contradictory and unresolvable.
  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: Kashiwa win (Yes/No), Machida Z win (Yes/No), Draw (Yes/No). Cancellation handling differs: Draw market resolves Yes if canceled; Kashiwa and Machida win markets resolve No if canceled. Primary source is official J-League statistics within 2 hours, with credible reporting as fallback.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.