TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 22, 10:05 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Kansas City or Tampa Bay specifically within the third quarter of their scheduled game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
These markets evaluate whether Tampa Bay or Kansas City wins the third quarter by exceeding specific point differentials. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the third quarter of play in the Kansas City vs Tampa Bay Pro Football game scheduled for August 22, 2026. Each rule defines a unique threshold—ranging from over 2.5 to over 10.5 points—for either team to win that quarter, with the market resolving to 'Yes' if the specified threshold is met. The secondary rule consistently limits scoring consideration to the third quarter alone, ensuring that only performance within that specific period affects the outcome. These markets operate independently, allowing for multiple potential 'Yes' resolutions depending on the actual point differential achieved in the third quarter.
On Kalshi, this market reflects trader sentiment rather than traditional sportsbook lines. Prediction market odds often diverge from sportsbook odds because they incorporate real-time trading dynamics and can react more quickly to new information. While sportsbooks may set their lines based on broader public betting trends and historical data, traders on Kalshi price in their own expectations and can adjust positions based on evolving game conditions. This difference means that this market may show a different spread than standard sportsbooks, especially as the game progresses and new data emerges.
This market resolves around Aug 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score differential for the third quarter will determine which side of the spread is correct, closing all open positions based on the confirmed result.
Several signals could shift this market before Aug 23, 2026. Key performance indicators in the early quarters, such as scoring runs, turnover ratios, and momentum swings, often influence trader behavior. Injuries to star players or critical coaching decisions may also cause rapid adjustments. Weather conditions or rule changes affecting gameplay could create sudden volatility. As the game unfolds, real-time statistics and shifting crowd sentiment will continue to drive updates, with traders reacting to each significant play or announcement that impacts the projected 3rd quarter spread.