TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 22, 9:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Kansas City or Tampa Bay specifically within the second quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to different point differentials that must be achieved by the winning team during that quarter alone.
These markets evaluate whether Tampa Bay or Kansas City wins the second quarter by exceeding specific point margins. All outcomes are determined solely by points scored during the second quarter of play. For Tampa Bay markets, resolution occurs if they outscore Kansas City by more than the stated margin (10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points). For Kansas City markets, resolution occurs if they outscore Tampa Bay by more than the stated margin (2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points). Only points scored in the second quarter count toward these resolutions, and all markets operate independently of each other.
Prediction market odds in this market often reflect sharp trader insights and can diverge from traditional sportsbook lines. While sportsbooks incorporate broader public betting patterns and adjusted margins, prediction markets price in real-time based on trader positioning and available information, sometimes revealing mispricings or early shifts in expected scoring margins.
On Kalshi, this market uses trader input to set its current odds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects collective expectations about the point differential in the second quarter, with traders adjusting positions based on new information and analysis. Volume of $4,246 shows overall interest, while recent 24-hour volume of $3,602 indicates current activity levels. The probability percentage displayed represents the market's best estimate of which team will cover the spread in that specific quarter.
This market resolves around Aug 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread for the second quarter will be calculated and matched against market positions to determine payouts based on the official game results.
Several signals could shift this market before Aug 23, 2026. Key performances in recent games, injury updates for star players, and strategic adjustments by coaches may sway expectations. Weather conditions on game day, referee assignments, and even early-game momentum during the first quarter can create ripple effects for quarter-specific spreads. Media narratives and expert commentary leading up to the match also influence trader sentiment, often causing noticeable movement in the odds as the event approaches.