TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 22, 8:20 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two NFL teams in the first quarter of their scheduled game, focusing on the margin of victory for each team. It allows participants to assess how dominantly either team might start the game, reflecting initial strategies and execution.
The event evaluates various point differentials by which either Kansas City or Tampa Bay could win the first quarter of their Pro Football game scheduled for August 22, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of points by which one team must lead at the end of the first quarter for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. Thresholds range from narrow margins such as over 2.5 points to larger margins like over 10.5 points, offering multiple levels of certainty regarding the outcome. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the first quarter, with no regard to the final game result or points scored in subsequent quarters. The resolution hinges solely on the point difference between the two teams at the end of the first quarter, with each threshold defining a distinct level of victory magnitude required for a 'Yes' outcome.
Compared to traditional sportsbook odds, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a different risk assessment. Sportsbooks may incorporate additional factors or adjust their lines based on broader betting patterns, while traders on Kalshi set prices based on their expectations for the first-quarter performance alone. This can lead to notable differences in implied probabilities.
This market resolves around Aug 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread after the first quarter will determine which side of the market is correct, and contracts will settle accordingly based on that verified result.