TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 1:10 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting which team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game between Kansas City and Miami. It covers all types of touchdowns, including those scored by offense, defense, or special teams, and accounts for scenarios where the game might go into overtime. The outcome depends solely on the first touchdown scored, regardless of the game's final score.
The event determines which team scores the first touchdown in the Kansas City vs Miami Pro Football game scheduled for September 27, 2026. All touchdowns—including offensive, defensive, and special teams plays—are counted. If the first touchdown occurs in overtime, it still counts toward the respective team’s market. Should neither team score a touchdown at any point during the game, including overtime, the “No team scores a TD” market resolves as the winner. Postponements are handled such that if the game starts within 48 hours of its original scheduled time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not commence within 48 hours of the scheduled start, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on analysis and aiming to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to freely express their beliefs. Over time, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong ability to forecast event outcomes, sometimes outperforming traditional methods. It’s common to see this market adjust rapidly to new information, like injury reports or weather forecasts, potentially leading to odds that diverge from those offered by sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each team scoring the first touchdown. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, reflecting a higher perceived chance of that outcome. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The prices on Kalshi are determined solely by supply and demand among traders on the exchange, and are not influenced by external factors or a central bookmaker.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, following the conclusion of the Kansas City vs Miami game. The outcome will be determined by which team is officially recorded as scoring the first touchdown, verified against credible public reporting of the game results. The official game statistics will serve as the basis for confirming the winning outcome in this market. The platform will then process the results and distribute payouts to contract holders accordingly.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Kansas City or Miami teams would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions that might favor a passing or running game, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced leading up to the game could also move the market. Finally, any significant public sentiment shifts, perhaps driven by expert analysis or media coverage, could lead to changes in the prices within this market.