TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 4:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in a specific football game, focusing on whether certain players or units exceed predetermined fantasy point thresholds using a standardized scoring system.
All markets resolve based on fantasy points scored by specified players or team defense units in the full game (including overtime) between Kansas City and Miami scheduled for September 27, 2026. Fantasy points are calculated using Sleeper’s default full-PPR scoring system, which awards points for passing, rushing, receiving, kicking, and defensive/special teams contributions as detailed in the scoring format. Players who do not participate or lack a fantasy-point value assigned by Sleeper are considered to have scored zero points. The official fantasy-point totals published by Sleeper at the time of market expiration are used for resolution, with no post-expiration adjustments or rounding applied. Each market individually checks whether the named player or unit surpasses their specific numeric threshold to resolve as 'Yes' or 'No'.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds to balance their books and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents what traders collectively believe will happen. As the event approaches, you may see convergence between the two, but discrepancies often remain due to differing information and motivations. Polls and analysts' predictions often align more closely with sportsbook odds initially, but this market can offer a unique perspective as it’s driven by financial incentives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome – in this case, each team winning. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the Super Bowl LVIII outcome. The market depth shows the available buy and sell orders at different price points.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score of the Super Bowl LVIII will be used to determine the winning team. The outcome will be based on the official results announced by the governing body of the NFL. Traders holding contracts for the winning team will receive a payout, while those holding contracts for the losing team will not. The precise payout amount will depend on the contract price at the time of resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Unexpected injuries to key players on either team would undoubtedly shift the odds. Major news regarding team strategy or coaching changes could also influence trading activity. Public sentiment, as reflected in media coverage and social media, can play a role, although this market is driven by financial incentives rather than pure opinion. Late-breaking weather forecasts for the game location could also introduce volatility. Any significant development affecting the perceived probability of either team winning could lead to substantial price movements.