TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 1:30 PM EST
Kalshi
In an upcoming NFL matchup, bettors will watch closely to see which defense scores the first touchdown, adding an extra layer of strategy to the game as defensive units occasionally score through turnovers or special teams plays.
The event determines which team's defense or a No Touchdown outcome scores the first touchdown in the specified NFL game. If either defense scores the first touchdown, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no touchdowns are scored by either defense, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes. Markets settle based on whether the specified defense takes a snap and subsequent touchdown scoring, with special provisions for games where no touchdowns occur, ensuring all outcomes are covered regardless of game dynamics.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially in the lead-up to an event. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. However, sportsbook odds can influence trading activity here, as they represent a widely available source of information. Discrepancies may arise due to differing opinions on player health, game strategy, or simply variations in risk assessment between bettors and traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each player scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that player being the first to score, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on Kalshi. The price is constantly adjusting based on supply and demand.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which player officially scores the first touchdown in the Kansas City versus Miami game, as determined by official game statistics. The official game records will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome in this market. Any disputes regarding the official scoring will be resolved based on the official game records.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either team would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest a run-heavy or pass-heavy game, could also influence trading activity. Pre-game reports on offensive strategies or potential mismatches could also move the market. Finally, any significant public endorsements or analysis from sports analysts could sway trader sentiment and impact the prices within this market.