TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 17, 12:11 AM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether a run will be scored in the first inning of a Kansas City Royals versus Houston Astros baseball game. Currently, the consensus probability of a run being scored in the first inning is 10.0%. This aggregate reflects predictions from Polymarket and Predict, and will resolve based on Official MLB statistics (MLB.com). The markets consistently resolve to the winning team of the game, with a 50-50 split for ties or cancellations, and will remain open until the game is completed. Keep an eye on the scheduled game time of September 24, 2026, as this marks the end of the betting period and the start of resolution.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros, scheduled for September 16 at 8:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
In the upcoming MLB game between the Kansas City Royals and Houston Astros, scheduled for September 15 at 8:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "Kansas City Royals" if the Kansas City Royals win the game. This market will resolve to "Houston Astros" if the Houston Astros win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of information than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance betting action and incorporate a profit margin, while prediction markets are driven by individuals wagering their own capital based on their beliefs. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public sentiment strongly diverges from expert analysis. While sportsbooks may initially favor one team, this market could shift if a significant number of informed traders believe the other team has a higher probability of winning. Both offer valuable insights, but represent different approaches to forecasting the outcome of the Royals-Astros game.
Several factors could significantly impact this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding key player injuries, changes in the starting pitchers, or even weather forecasts could shift the implied probabilities. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or player performance could also influence trading activity. A strong performance by either team in preceding games might also affect sentiment. Monitoring these signals and how traders react to them will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market as it approaches its resolution date.