TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
August 17
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Predict
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 13, 2026
Closed: Aug 12, 8:09 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether streamers Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed will complete a specific Minecraft challenge by August 12, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability stands at 99.5%. Data is drawn from Polymarket and Predict, with resolution determined by official broadcasts on Kai Cenat's and IShowSpeed's YouTube and Twitch channels. Keep an eye on the August 12 deadline for the end of the betting period to see if the challenge gets completed.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Predict markets share identical resolution criteria including deadline timing, gameplay requirements, and validation sourcesPrimary resolution logic: Official broadcasts on Kai Cenat's and IShowSpeed's YouTube and Twitch channelsCore resolution logic:
- Challenge must be completed live on stream between market creation and specified deadline (11:59 PM ET)
- All four bosses (Ender Dragon, Wither, Warden, Elder Guardian) must be defeated on same hardcore seed without player deaths
- Progress cannot carry over after in-game death - new attempt required
- Completion must occur during live broadcast by at least one player
- Rule modifications (e.g., removing objectives, switching modes) invalidate potential completions
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Cancelled Stream: If the scheduled August 7 stream is cancelled and no replacement occurs before the deadline, market resolves No
- Partial Completion: Defeating fewer than four bosses or completing on different seeds does not count as success
- Delayed Completion: If completed after the specified deadline but before August 17, only the market with the latest applicable deadline resolves Yes
Polymarket
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge live on stream between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All four objectives must be completed on the same seed and in the same world. Progress across multiple seeds will not be combined. Any successful attempt within the specified timeframe will qualify; however, no challenge progress may be carried over following an in-game death and the beginning of a new attempt. Practice or casual worlds not set to Hardcore will not count. No event will count if it occurs while the player in question is in Creative or Spectator mode, or if it results from the use of commands, cheats, or any external tool to spawn entities, alter the world, or deal damage. Only completion of the challenge as defined above will qualify. If Kai and Speed modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode, any completion achieved under the modified rules will not count toward resolution. Only events occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. If the challenge is cancelled by, abandoned before completion by, or delayed to a point after the specified date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the challenge on Kai Cenat's and IShowSpeed's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.
Predict
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge live on stream between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". All four objectives must be completed on the same seed and in the same world. Progress across multiple seeds will not be combined. Any successful attempt within the specified timeframe will qualify; however, no challenge progress may be carried over following an in-game death and the beginning of a new attempt. Practice or casual worlds not set to Hardcore will not count. No event will count if it occurs while the player in question is in Creative or Spectator mode, or if it results from the use of commands, cheats, or any external tool to spawn entities, alter the world, or deal damage. Only completion of the challenge as defined above will qualify. If Kai and Speed modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode, any completion achieved under the modified rules will not count toward resolution. Only events occurring while at least one of the two players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. If the challenge is cancelled by, abandoned before completion by, or delayed to a point after the specified date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the challenge on Kai Cenat's and IShowSpeed's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.
Frequently asked questions
Market movement will likely hinge on live updates from Kai and Speed’s streams, commentary from their fanbase, and any surprise announcements about rule changes or timeline adjustments. A major gameplay breakthrough or setback could cause rapid re-pricing, while editorials or viral social media posts may also shift sentiment. Traders should monitor both platforms for sudden volume spikes or odds swings as the August deadline approaches.
