TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 7, 7:24 PM EST
Kalshi
Similar to the first event, these two markets assess the total maps played in another esports match, this time between KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas and INTZ e-Sports. One market triggers if over 3.5 maps are played, and the other if over 4.5 maps are played. The match length ultimately decides the outcomes.
Both markets resolve based on the total number of maps in the Circuito Desafiante 2026 League of Legends match. The first requires more than 3.5 maps (at least four) to resolve Yes, while the second needs more than 4.5 maps (at least five). Secondary rules again state that Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions from traders. As more information becomes available – such as team compositions, player form, and even in-game strategies – the prediction market may converge with, or diverge from, sportsbook odds. It's common to see prediction markets more accurately reflect the true probabilities as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different map totals. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand; if many traders believe a shorter series is likely, the contracts for lower map totals will become more expensive. Conversely, if a longer series is anticipated, contracts for higher map totals will increase in price. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to reflect the collective intelligence of the traders.
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of maps played in the KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas versus INTZ e-Sports match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the League of Legends match, as reported by the tournament organizers. The market will determine which outcome – the total number of maps played – was the correct prediction based on this official result. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries or changes in team rosters for either KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas or INTZ e-Sports could significantly shift expectations. In-game performance during the series itself – such as early game dominance by one team – will also likely cause rapid price adjustments. Major upsets in other League of Legends tournaments, or shifts in the meta game, could also indirectly affect trader sentiment and move this market. Analyst predictions and community discussions may also play a role.