TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 14, 6:19 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the total number of maps played in an upcoming professional League of Legends match between two teams. The outcome depends on whether the match extends beyond a certain number of maps, reflecting the competitive intensity and strategy of the game. It provides insight into how analysts and fans expect the match to unfold in terms of duration and closeness.
The event evaluates two separate thresholds for the total number of maps played in the Circuito Desafiante 2026 match between KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas and Estral Esports, scheduled for September 14, 2026. The first threshold resolves to Yes if more than 3.5 maps are played, indicating at least four full maps occur. The second, more stringent threshold, resolves to Yes only if more than 4.5 maps are played, requiring at least five full maps. Both markets are independent, meaning each has its own resolution criteria based on the actual number of maps completed during the match. The event is unaffiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Therefore, discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or risk assessments. If you find a significant difference between the probabilities implied by this market and those offered by sportsbooks, it could indicate an opportunity for value betting, assuming you have a strong conviction about the true probability.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different map totals in the KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of the corresponding contract will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions.
This market resolves around Sep 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the total number of maps played in the KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas versus Estral Esports match. The final result will be sourced from official tournament organizers and publicly available game data to ensure accuracy. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct map total will receive a payout of 100 minus the commission.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market. Any news regarding player form, team strategies, or potential roster changes for either KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas or Estral Esports could shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also play a role. Furthermore, the results of other recent matches involving these teams, or shifts in the broader League of Legends competitive landscape, might prompt traders to reassess their predictions and adjust their positions in this market.