TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 8, 10:53 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks whether Jynxzi, Ron, and Los will successfully complete their Minecraft challenge of defeating the Ender Dragon in hardcore mode by October 15. Currently, Polymarket gives a 95.0% probability to that outcome. Resolution will be determined by observing the stream at https://www.twitch.tv/stableronaldo. Keep an eye on the start of their attempt on October 5, 2026, as the initial progress of the hardcore Minecraft marathon will be a key indicator of their chances of success.
Polymarket
Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos are scheduled to begin a hardcore Minecraft marathon on October 5, 2026. Their goal, as of market creation, is to defeat the Ender Dragon in a hardcore Minecraft world without any of the three dying. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jynxzi, StableRonaldo, and Los Pollos defeat the Ender Dragon live on stream, as accepted by them as a successful completion of their challenge, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only events occurring while at least one of the three players is broadcasting the challenge live will count. Footage of off-stream or previously recorded attempts will not qualify. If the challenge is cancelled, abandoned before completion, or delayed to a point after the specified date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be footage from the official broadcasts of the challenge on Jynxzi's, StableRonaldo's, and Los Pollos's official broadcasts on YouTube and Twitch.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it's difficult to directly compare prediction market odds to specific analyst forecasts for this event, as comprehensive public predictions aren’t widely available. However, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are actively putting capital behind their beliefs about the outcome. If polls or expert opinions emerge suggesting a different probability than what’s reflected in the market, it could create trading opportunities. The market’s price will adjust as new information becomes available and traders react to it, potentially diverging from initial expectations.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome, and the price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people buy shares, the price increases, indicating a higher probability of the event occurring. Conversely, increased selling pressure lowers the price. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the aggregated sentiment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the likelihood of Jynxzi, Ron, and Los succeeding in their Minecraft speedrun.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on whether Jynxzi, Ron, and Los successfully complete a full run of Minecraft within the parameters defined by the speedrunning community. The result will be determined by publicly available evidence, such as recorded gameplay footage and verification from established speedrunning leaderboards. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of the outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding the team’s practice runs, strategies, or potential challenges could significantly impact trader sentiment. Unexpected technical difficulties during the speedrun attempt, or changes to the Minecraft game itself, could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, major announcements within the speedrunning community or increased media coverage of the event could draw more attention and volume to this market, leading to price movements. Public statements from Jynxzi, Ron, or Los could also act as catalysts.
