TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 14M
- Kalshi
Above 14M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 25, 2026
Closed: Sep 25, 12:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks Justin Bieber's performance on a specific date, focusing on the threshold of global daily views his content receives on a major video platform. Each market corresponds to a different view count benchmark, allowing participants to speculate on how well his content might perform on that day.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on Justin Bieber's global daily YouTube view count on September 23, 2026, measured from a New York IP address. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from above 14 million to above 17 million views. If the actual view count exceeds a market's specified threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. View counts are sourced from YouTube Charts by searching for the artist and selecting “Global” as the location. Neither these markets nor the associated products are endorsed by YouTube, and any references to YouTube are purely descriptive, indicating no affiliation between YouTube and the market operator.
Frequently asked questions
Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals interesting insights into collective intelligence versus expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions, as traders directly put capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies can arise from factors analysts may overlook, such as the wisdom of the crowd or real-time reactions to unfolding events. It’s common to see the market adjust rapidly to new information, potentially outpacing the speed of more conventional forecasting methods.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes for the number of views. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices dynamically adjust, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current market depth and order book are visible on the Kalshi dashboard, allowing you to analyze trading activity.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the number of views Justin Bieber receives on the specified date will be sourced from a publicly available and verifiable source. The market will then settle based on that verified number, determining which contracts pay out and at what value. Traders should monitor news sources and official announcements leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about any relevant developments.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Any announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s promotional activities around the release date, such as music video releases or major media appearances, would likely impact trading activity. Unexpected events affecting his public image or online engagement could also cause shifts in the market. Furthermore, broader trends in social media viewership and platform algorithms could influence expectations, as could any major news events occurring around September 23, 2026, that might capture public attention.
