TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 14M
- Kalshi
Above 14M - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 24, 2026
Closed: Sep 24, 4:30 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This set of markets tracks Justin Bieber's performance on a specific date, measuring how many global daily views his content receives on a major video platform. Each market has a different threshold, allowing participants to speculate on various levels of viewership achievement.
Kalshi
These markets resolve based on Justin Bieber's global daily YouTube view count on September 22, 2026, measured from a New York IP address. Each market has a unique numerical threshold ranging from 14 million to 17 million views. If the actual view count exceeds a market's specific threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding geographic variability and data source methodology, with the explicit disclaimer that YouTube neither endorses these markets nor maintains any affiliation with the organizing entity. Participants should verify view counts through YouTube Charts using 'Global' location filtering.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds offered in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Justin Bieber’s views. However, prediction markets often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ that can differ from individual expert opinions. If analysts broadly anticipate high viewership, we might see the odds of exceeding 14.25M views increase, and vice versa. It’s important to remember that prediction market prices represent what traders are willing to pay based on their own assessments of the likelihood of the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether Justin Bieber will have above 14.25M daily views on September 22, 2026. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price reflects the collective intelligence of all participants trading in the market, and changes as new information becomes available or sentiment shifts.
This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on the verified daily view count for Justin Bieber’s content on September 22, 2026, as reported by a widely recognized and trusted source for video statistics. The market will settle to 100 if the view count is above 14.25M, and to 0 if it is at or below that threshold.
Several factors could significantly impact the price of this market. Any major announcements regarding Justin Bieber’s upcoming projects, such as new music releases, tours, or collaborations, could influence viewership expectations. Shifts in social media trends or changes to video-sharing platform algorithms could also play a role. Furthermore, general public interest in Justin Bieber and any associated media coverage will likely affect trading activity and, consequently, the market’s price. Unexpected events impacting his public image could also move this market.
